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en:passport:oroszok_a_gnss_ellen [2026/07/15 22:16] – Automatic translation vamsanen:passport:oroszok_a_gnss_ellen [2026/07/16 21:41] (current) – vamsan
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 How would you react if the sat-nav in your car suddenly stopped working? What if the mobile network went down and, all of a sudden, the power cut out too? These are, in fact, the main objectives of one of the tools of Russian hybrid warfare, the **GPS jamming**. If you happen to think this is just an empty threat, I’m afraid I must disabuse you of that notion; the Russians are already testing this capability almost every month. How would you react if the sat-nav in your car suddenly stopped working? What if the mobile network went down and, all of a sudden, the power cut out too? These are, in fact, the main objectives of one of the tools of Russian hybrid warfare, the **GPS jamming**. If you happen to think this is just an empty threat, I’m afraid I must disabuse you of that notion; the Russians are already testing this capability almost every month.
  
-{{ passport:oroszok_a_gnss_ellen_00.png |}}+{{ passport:oroszok_a_gnss_ellen_00.png |Russia’s hybrid warfare against the European GNSS system}}
  
-In November 2024 **Professor Todd Humphreys** (//University of Texas at Austin//) was tipped off that it would be worth looking into a few specific dates in the public data from former GPS monitoring stations to get to the bottom of a strange phenomenon.+In November 2024, **Professor Todd Humphreys** (//University of Texas at Austin//) was tipped off that it would be worth looking into a few specific dates in the public data from former GPS monitoring stations to get to the bottom of a strange phenomenon.
  
-The signals from GPS satellites are recorded by several data collection stations worldwide; and there are dozens of such systems operating in Europe too. These simply log the data from visible satellites, and these log files can be retrieved and analysed. Observers have noticed on several occasions that the European GPS signal ‘drops out’ for 2–3 seconds every few weeks //“drops out”//; all European units simultaneously detect a brief disruption in GPS activity. Looking back, 75 such days have been identified since 2019 when this same continent-wide pattern recurred – the effect was felt from Spain to Svalbard.+The signals from GPS satellites are recorded by several data collection stations worldwide, and there are dozens of such systems operating in Europe, too. These simply log the data from visible satellites, and these log files can be retrieved and analysed. Observers have noticed on several occasions that the European GPS signal ‘drops out’ for 2–3 seconds every few weeks //“drops out”//; all European units simultaneously detect a brief disruption in GPS activity. Looking back, 75 such days have been identified since 2019, when this same continent-wide pattern recurred – the effect was felt from Spain to Svalbard.
    
 [{{ passport:oroszok_a_gnss_ellen_01.png |The moment the GNSS signals dropped out was recorded simultaneously by several stations; image: Veritasium}}] [{{ passport:oroszok_a_gnss_ellen_01.png |The moment the GNSS signals dropped out was recorded simultaneously by several stations; image: Veritasium}}]
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 ==== How does GPS locate us from outer space? ==== ==== How does GPS locate us from outer space? ====
-Imagine that the satellites orbiting the Earth are like lighthouses placed in outer space, each fitted with a super-accurate clock **lighthouses**. These satellites continuously broadcast the exact time and their own position to Earth. When our phone receives these radio signals, it calculates how long it took for the signal to reach it based on the speed of light, and from this it works out how far away it is from that particular satellite. If our phone knows the distances to at least four of these ‘space lighthouses’ at the same time – using maths to find the points where the circles intersect – it can determine our exact position on the planet, down to the metre. The more satellites our phone can see and use at the same time, the more the data arriving from different directions corroborates each other, meaning that positioning can become accurate to within a centimetre.+Imagine that the satellites orbiting the Earth are like lighthouses placed in outer space, each fitted with a super-accurate clock **lighthouses**. These satellites continuously broadcast the exact time and their own position to Earth. When our phone receives these radio signals, it calculates how long it took for the signal to reach it based on the speed of light, and from this, it works out how far away it is from that particular satellite. If our phone knows the distances to at least four of these ‘space lighthouses’ at the same time – using maths to find the points where the circles intersect – it can determine our exact position on the planet, down to the metre. The more satellites our phone can see and use at the same time, the more the data arriving from different directions corroborate each other, meaning that positioning can become accurate to within a centimetre.
  
 ==== What damage would a prolonged GNSS outage cause? ==== ==== What damage would a prolonged GNSS outage cause? ====
- If, as part of a hybrid military operation, someone were to completely or partially disable the **GNSS** (//GPS, Galileo, GLONASS, BeiDou//) systems in Europe as part of a hybrid military operation, it would cause an immediate infrastructural and economic collapse, resulting in losses of several billion euros per day. As, according to OECD estimates, around 10 per cent of the modern economy relies directly on satellite-based positioning and timing (**PNT**), the consequences would go far beyond motorists losing access to Google Maps. Civil aviation would be paralysed immediately. Although aeroplanes are capable of navigating using ground-based radar, airport approaches and the management of Europe’s dense airspace would be impossible without GNSS. Thousands of flights would have to be cancelled or diverted to land. + If, as part of a hybrid military operation, someone were to completely or partially disable the **GNSS** (//GPS, Galileo, GLONASS, BeiDou//) systems in Europe as part of a hybrid military operation, it would cause an immediate infrastructural and economic collapse, resulting in losses of several billion euros per day. According to OECD estimates, around 10 per cent of the modern economy relies directly on satellite-based positioning and timing (**PNT**), so the consequences would extend far beyond motorists losing access to Google Maps. Civil aviation would be paralysed immediately. Although aeroplanes can navigate using ground-based radar, airport approaches and the management of Europe’s dense airspace would be impossible without GNSS. Thousands of flights would have to be cancelled or diverted to land. 
  
 Ports (e.g. Rotterdam, Hamburg) would grind to a halt, as automated container cranes and cargo ships rely on GNSS guidance accurate to the centimetre. Global supply chains would collapse within days. The //“just-in-time”// logistics networks and food delivery services would grind to a halt, causing immediate shortages of goods in supermarkets.  Ports (e.g. Rotterdam, Hamburg) would grind to a halt, as automated container cranes and cargo ships rely on GNSS guidance accurate to the centimetre. Global supply chains would collapse within days. The //“just-in-time”// logistics networks and food delivery services would grind to a halt, causing immediate shortages of goods in supermarkets. 
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 ==== The investigation ==== ==== The investigation ====
-Initially, researchers suspected a ground-based jamming station (such as the military towers in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad) – clearly, from the very outset of the investigation, there was no question as to which superpower’s machinations lay behind the phenomenon. However, due to the curvature of the Earth, a ground-based transmitter is incapable of simultaneously causing coordinated interference across an entire continent. Geometric calculations showed that the source must be at least 1,200 km high in space.+Initially, researchers suspected a ground-based jamming station (such as the military towers in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad) – clearly, from the very outset of the investigation, there was no question as to which superpower’s machinations lay behind the phenomenon. However, due to the curvature of the Earth, a ground-based transmitter cannot simultaneously cause coordinated interference across an entire continent. Geometric calculations showed that the source must be at least 1,200 km above the surface of the Earth.
  
 In the early stages, the researchers narrowed the list down to 14 geostationary satellites, but the investigation stalled because the stations recording GNSS data did not record the data with sufficient (temporal) accuracy, making it impossible to narrow the field any further.  The researchers shared their findings to date with other universities, hoping for their support. A breakthrough came in February 2026 when two institutes (in Amsterdam and Trondheim, Norway) simultaneously reported an outage and were able to provide highly accurate timestamps for their raw, digitised radio frequency voltage samples.  In the early stages, the researchers narrowed the list down to 14 geostationary satellites, but the investigation stalled because the stations recording GNSS data did not record the data with sufficient (temporal) accuracy, making it impossible to narrow the field any further.  The researchers shared their findings to date with other universities, hoping for their support. A breakthrough came in February 2026 when two institutes (in Amsterdam and Trondheim, Norway) simultaneously reported an outage and were able to provide highly accurate timestamps for their raw, digitised radio frequency voltage samples. 
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 ==== What is the actual primary purpose of the EKS/‘Tundra’ satellite constellation? ==== ==== What is the actual primary purpose of the EKS/‘Tundra’ satellite constellation? ====
-The Tundra satellites are equipped with highly sensitive, five-spectrum (including infrared and ultraviolet) optical sensors. Their primary task is to immediately detect and report the heat signatures from the engines of ballistic and hypersonic missiles launched from anywhere in the world – particularly from submarines in the oceans or from US territory – and to alert the military leadership in Moscow.+The Tundra satellites are equipped with highly sensitive, five-spectrum optical sensors (including infrared and ultraviolet). Their primary task is to immediately detect and report the heat signatures from the engines of ballistic and hypersonic missiles launched from anywhere in the world – particularly from submarines in the oceans or from US territory – and to alert the military leadership in Moscow.
  
 In addition, the satellites are equipped with a secondary, strictly protected communications payload. The purpose of this is to ensure the transmission of encrypted commands to Russia’s nuclear retaliatory forces in the event of a nuclear war. In addition, the satellites are equipped with a secondary, strictly protected communications payload. The purpose of this is to ensure the transmission of encrypted commands to Russia’s nuclear retaliatory forces in the event of a nuclear war.
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   * Kosmos 2563 (Tundra 6 – Launch: 2022) – The newest member of the constellation, although orbital anomalies were detected in this satellite during 2025.   * Kosmos 2563 (Tundra 6 – Launch: 2022) – The newest member of the constellation, although orbital anomalies were detected in this satellite during 2025.
  
-Russia originally intended to expand the constellation to 10 units. However, due to Western sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine (in particular the embargo on high-tech microchips and optical sensors), the Russian space industry is unable to manufacture new Tundra satellites, so the replenishment of the fleet has come to a complete standstill.+Russia originally intended to expand the constellation to 10 units. However, due to Western sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine (in particular, the embargo on high-tech microchips and optical sensors), the Russian space industry is unable to manufacture new Tundra satellites, so the replenishment of the fleet has come to a complete standstill.
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
  
-The members of the constellation are in an extremely elongated, so-called **Molniya orbits** . This specialised elliptical orbit allows the satellites to slow down dramatically over the northern hemisphere and remain there for most of the day, whilst their altitude varies from 1,000–2,000 kilometres near the Earth to 40,000 kilometres far from the Earth. +The members of the constellation are in extremely elongated, so-called **Molniya orbits** . This specialised elliptical orbit allows the satellites to slow down dramatically over the northern hemisphere and remain there for most of the day, whilst their altitude varies from 1,000–2,000 kilometres near the Earth to 40,000 kilometres far from the Earth. 
  
 The theoretical minimum altitude of 1,200 kilometres calculated by researchers coincides perfectly with that of **Kosmos 2546’s** , which was causing disruption to the continent whilst situated precisely within this near-Earth window. As the network provides global coverage, the Russians would theoretically be capable of carrying out similar GNSS jamming not only over Europe but even over the United States. The theoretical minimum altitude of 1,200 kilometres calculated by researchers coincides perfectly with that of **Kosmos 2546’s** , which was causing disruption to the continent whilst situated precisely within this near-Earth window. As the network provides global coverage, the Russians would theoretically be capable of carrying out similar GNSS jamming not only over Europe but even over the United States.
  
-According to the raw data, Kosmos 2546 not only broadcast a powerful signal in the immediate vicinity of the GPS bands (1577.5 MHz) with a powerful signal, but also a lower frequency (1558.5 MHz), which overlaps with the frequency of the Chinese Beidou navigation system.+According to the raw data, Kosmos 2546 not only broadcast a powerful signal in the immediate vicinity of the GPS band (1577.5 MHz) but also at a lower frequency (1558.5 MHz), which overlaps with the frequency of the Chinese Beidou navigation system.
  
 [{{ passport:oroszok_a_gnss_ellen_04.png |The interference was recorded in several European countries simultaneously; image: Vertiasium}}] [{{ passport:oroszok_a_gnss_ellen_04.png |The interference was recorded in several European countries simultaneously; image: Vertiasium}}]
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 **Richard Bowden**, of the Spanish **GMV** technology giant, confirmed with his own data that in at least three of the 75 documented cases, Russian military satellites were undoubtedly involved. The leading trade journal of the global navigation industry, the [[https://www.gpsworld.com/todd-humphreys-russian-satellites-a-cause-of-gnss-jamming-across-europe/|GPS World]], has also covered the study in detail, noting that //the Russian embassy declined to comment on the allegations//. **Richard Bowden**, of the Spanish **GMV** technology giant, confirmed with his own data that in at least three of the 75 documented cases, Russian military satellites were undoubtedly involved. The leading trade journal of the global navigation industry, the [[https://www.gpsworld.com/todd-humphreys-russian-satellites-a-cause-of-gnss-jamming-across-europe/|GPS World]], has also covered the study in detail, noting that //the Russian embassy declined to comment on the allegations//.
  
-Of course, anyone expecting an admission from the Russians is in for a long wait, but the sheer volume of data and measurements makes the culprit clear. Experts suggest two main reasons as to why Kosmos 2546 is bombarding the continent with only a few seconds’ worth of frequency-shifted transmissions. On the one hand, this is a capability test (Todd Humphreys’ theory): Russia is testing its space-based electronic warfare system in preparation for a potential armed conflict. The reason they are not transmitting directly on the GPS frequency and are only broadcasting for short periods is so as not to fully reveal the weapon’s true power, whilst still verifying its functionality. According to an alternative theory put forward by another European research group, the interference is in fact a by-product of very short, encrypted communication messages. They use the protected navigation bands because enemy forces will not dare to jam these frequencies, for fear of paralysing their own navigation systems.+Of course, anyone expecting an admission from the Russians is in for a long wait, but the sheer volume of data and measurements makes the culprit clear. Experts suggest two main reasons as to why Kosmos 2546 is bombarding the continent with only a few seconds’ worth of frequency-shifted transmissions. On the one hand, this is a capability test (Todd Humphreys’ theory): Russia is testing its space-based electronic warfare system in preparation for a potential armed conflict. The reason they are not transmitting directly on the GPS frequency and are only broadcasting for short periods is to avoid fully revealing the weapon’s true power, whilst still verifying its functionality. According to an alternative theory proposed by another European research group, the interference is, in fact, a by-product of very short, encrypted communication messages. They use the protected navigation bands because enemy forces will not dare to jam these frequencies, for fear of paralysing their own navigation systems.
  
 ==== Reactions ==== ==== Reactions ====
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 Interestingly, South Korea and China had already established their own eLoran networks, as North Korean ground-based GPS jamming is a daily problem for them. Interestingly, South Korea and China had already established their own eLoran networks, as North Korean ground-based GPS jamming is a daily problem for them.
  
-Following the intensification of the Russian hybrid threat, the United Kingdom, Norway and several other northern European countries have also begun to rebuild and activate their eLoran stations to protect critical ports and shipping routes.+Following the intensification of the Russian hybrid threat, the United Kingdom, Norway, and several other northern European countries have also begun rebuilding and reactivating their eLoran stations to protect critical ports and shipping routes.
  
-Modern passenger aircraft no longer rely solely on GNSS. Ring laser gyroscopes (**RLG** – //Ring Laser Gyroscope//) and accelerometers, the aircraft’s computer knows exactly which direction it is travelling in and at what speed from the moment of take-off. This is a completely closed system; it does not receive external radio signals, making it immune to any form of external interference or tampering. (The drawback is that a minimal positional error may accumulate over the course of a flight lasting several hours.)+Modern passenger aircraft no longer rely solely on GNSS. Ring laser gyroscopes (**RLG** – //Ring Laser Gyroscope//) and accelerometers, the aircraft’s computer knows exactly which direction it is travelling in and at what speed from the moment of take-off. This is a completely closed system; it does not receive external radio signals, making it immune to interference or tampering. (The drawback is that a minimal positional error may accumulate over the course of a flight lasting several hours.)
  
 In the vicinity of airports, the EU maintains and develops traditional, ground-based radio navigation networks (**DME**  – //Distance Measuring Equipment//, **VOR** - //circular beacon//). If GPS is completely lost, pilots will be able to land with centimetre-level accuracy using these ground-based transmitters. In the vicinity of airports, the EU maintains and develops traditional, ground-based radio navigation networks (**DME**  – //Distance Measuring Equipment//, **VOR** - //circular beacon//). If GPS is completely lost, pilots will be able to land with centimetre-level accuracy using these ground-based transmitters.
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 Once mass production of the miniature antennas and integrated chips developed by ESA and Roke begins, they could be incorporated into the navigation systems of premium cars and, eventually, into top-of-the-range smartphones as a secondary line of defence. Once mass production of the miniature antennas and integrated chips developed by ESA and Roke begins, they could be incorporated into the navigation systems of premium cars and, eventually, into top-of-the-range smartphones as a secondary line of defence.
  
-{{page>passport:utolso_bejegyzesek}}+{{page>en:passport:utolso_bejegyzesek}}
  
-{{page>passport:lablec}}+{{page>en:passport:lablec}}
  
 ===== Sources ===== ===== Sources =====
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 Public tracking data for Russia’s early missile defence warning system (EKS) and the Tundra constellation orbiting in the Molniya orbit: [[https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.space-track.org/&ved=2ahUKEwiL_LfhhryVAxVMFBAIHR44Ko8Qy_kOegYIAAgHEBY&opi=89978449&cd&psig=AOvVaw1Wb9hzRnQ4698WAaeNcgYi&ust=1783358636391000|Space-Track.org (Joint Force Space Component Command)]] Public tracking data for Russia’s early missile defence warning system (EKS) and the Tundra constellation orbiting in the Molniya orbit: [[https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.space-track.org/&ved=2ahUKEwiL_LfhhryVAxVMFBAIHR44Ko8Qy_kOegYIAAgHEBY&opi=89978449&cd&psig=AOvVaw1Wb9hzRnQ4698WAaeNcgYi&ust=1783358636391000|Space-Track.org (Joint Force Space Component Command)]]
  
- +{{tag>2026 interesting_story Todd_Humphreys tech investigative journalism Russia GPS GNSS Galileo GLONASS BeiDou Europe EU blackout Cosmos_2541 Cosmos_2546 Cosmos_2552 Cosmos_2563 Tundra Golden_Dome Molnyija NATO eLoran enhanced_Loran Nav-Sync_Pulse ESA Roke EASA IATA}}
-===== Recommended ===== +
-Similar posts can be found on the **‘Interesting Stories’** section: {{topic>erdekes_toertenet&nodate&nouser}} +
- +
-{{tag>2026 érdekes_történet Todd_Humphreys tech oknyomozás Oroszország GPS GNSS Galileo GLONASS BeiDou Európa EU blackout Kosmos_2541 Kosmos_2546 Kosmos_2552 Kosmos_2563 Tundra Golden_Dome Molnyija NATO eLoran enhanced_Loran Nav-Sync_Pulse ESA Roke EASA IATA}}+
  
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en/passport/oroszok_a_gnss_ellen.txt · Last modified: by vamsan